Just
how safe IS it to fly small aircraft in Canada? Lately in
2009 we have observed a steady
stream of accidents with small Canadian aircraft. This
area is referred to as General Aviation. We are not
talking about large commercial aircraft and the larger airlines in
Canada as their safety record appears to be
excellent. So we
decided to research the topic. This is an ongoing
investigation. We are doing this with the full
understanding of how sensitive and opinionated many people
are on the topic. What are the facts?
Before we start lets review the idea
behind this website. Basically we uncover bullshit and
suggest a better way. We are not members of any
special interest group and simply are searching for
the truth and attempting to improve a situation where
a problem exists. Also we are not researching this
from the perspective of a professional pilot, a aircraft
mechanic or engineer an industry insider or a government
regulator. We respect the professionals in each of these
branches.
Often deaths and injuries in General
Aviation involve well respected pilots, aircraft mechanics, manufacturers
and regulators. All participants have an interest in assigning or
avoiding blame. Many times people within the industry
will have known those injured or killed and have a
personal and emotional reaction to the crashes. In fact I
personally know a victim of a general aviation crash who I
thought very highly of and miss to this day. What I
have noticed is that if anyone outside the industry
expresses a concern about the safety within general
aviation then those operating within the industry lash out
and are often quite vicious is calling the person down or
questioning their right to even express an opinion. Often
opinions expressed by the general public are almost
moronic in nature and and one can understand the sensitivity to them
from people within the industry.
We will begin with a general premise
and then focus in on aspects of it.
Our general premise is that
subjectively -there appear to be a regular stream of
air accidents in general aviation in Canada while in
comparison the commercial aviation industry seems to
have far fewer accidents. As an example in 2007 we had
approximately 200 aircraft accidents with the vast
majority of them being in general aviation. This equates
to approximately 38 deaths and again the vast majority of
deaths occurred in general aviation. From a subjective
point of view since there are 52 weeks in a year it seems
that there is a general aviation death every week or two.
Unlike car accidents in Canada where little national media
overage is given to the 4 people or so who die every day
on our highways aircraft crashes receive national
coverage.
Our second premise is
that accidents are caused by pilot error, mechanical
error, weather or a combination of factors nearly all
of which except perhaps weather being preventable in
theory. Each of
these categories would have sub headings.
Our
third premise is that there is value to a analytical, non
emotional analysis of the facts which may be a very
difficult task for those within the industry as they form
opinions and express comments on aircraft they may have
flown many years and on pilots and staff they have a great
deal of professional respect for. Let the facts speak
for themselves.
Our forth premise is that wherever human
activity occurs errors will also occur because humans
are incapable of sustained perfection and mistakes will
always occur.
Method: I will use this webpage to
display information collected to date and when appropriate
include conclusions regarding general aviation safety in
Canada. At this time I only have concerns about what
appears to be a higher than acceptable frequency of
accidents.
POTENTIAL CAUSES
OF AIRCRAFT ACCIDENTS
Pilot Error
Mechanical Error
-
error in repair and maintenance of
aircraft
-
no fuel
-
fire
-
forces exceed air frame strength
-
air frame fatigue
-
electrical problems
-
engine stops
-
aircraft are too old - in the USA
the average age of single engine general aviation
aircraft in 2000 was 30 years and in 2020 that
average is projected to rise to 50 years. As of
this time I have not been able to locate similar
measures for Canadian General Aviation aircraft.
When aircraft were originally designed their
engineers never considered they would be still
flying many decades later. In the USA the retirement
rate is approximately 3% per year.
Weather and environmental
-
wind
-
visibility
-
lightning
-
icing
-
bird strike
-
rain/snow /fog
Regulatory Problems
-
Insufficient resources
-
Outsourcing regulatory activity to
airline companies
-
Insufficient regulations
-
Insufficient crash investigations
-
Insufficient statistics to determine
trends and identify specific problems
-
insufficient analysis of raw data i.e.
reports are produced but nobody analyses them to
understand what they mean.
Financial Issues
Cost is a factor in any human activity.
The vast majority of general aviation aircraft are
piston driven because a piston driven aircraft is significantly
less expensive to operate than a jet or turboprop
aircraft. Older aircraft are significantly less
expensive than newer aircraft. Having a small airline
self police itself is cheaper than sending a government
regulator to do an onsite inspection. But who would do
the better job?
Myths and Legends
It seems that the older the aircraft the
more mythical it's performance and reputation becomes.
In short the reputation for an aircraft type is built up
over several years or decades and once established those
in the industry will tend to exaggerate it's suitability
and abilities. In reality the aircraft is tested on
every flight. The fact that the aircraft has made
hundreds or thousands of flights to date does not guarantee
that the next flight will be successful. Three aircraft
with this type of mythical reputation are the DeHaviland
Beaver, Grumman Goose and the Douglas DC3. Each time one
of these aircraft crash people in the industry yard out
stories about what wonderful aircraft they are and what
wonderful dependability they represent.
Combination of errors
Two or several causes combine to
cause the accident. In fact this is how accidents
normally happen.
